Three crises. No single solution. A region at a crossroads.
Three crises are converging in the Pacific Northwest electricity system: a shrinking federal foundation, a fragmented market, and a widening capacity gap. Together they form what this paper calls the Energy Trap. The paper maps the trap, and the narrow path out.
Draft The paper is in draft and we are polishing it with collaborators. If you are already a collaborator, you can view the paper here. Else, reach out to us!
January 2032, told twice. A collision scenario and a coordination scenario. The rest of the paper argues how the region gets to one and not the other.
The machine built for abundance, the WPPSS scar, and the wrong lesson the region learned from it.
A shrinking federal foundation, a fragmented market, and a widening capacity gap. How the three crises interlock.
What the East Coast capacity market's break tells us, and what it doesn't.
The core contradiction inside integrated resource plans, the assumptions quietly carrying the load, and the coordination gap.
Batteries, gas, transmission, markets, renewables. Why each one alone fails the arithmetic.
A coordination problem, not a technology problem. Transmission, distributed resources, and the system the region deserves.
Back to 2032. Validate, compress, resolve.
If you work in PNW energy policy and want to connect, or want to be notified when the paper is published, reach out.
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